Dan Webb

In my readings this weekend I came across this BusinessWeek article on Southwest’s new codeshare with WestJet, and it had this interesting tidbit:

[Gary] Kelly said Southwest is talking to “close to a dozen” other carriers about similar deals to connect its customers to Hawaii, Mexico and the Caribbean by late 2009, and Europe and beyond in later years.

Obviously it got me speculating as to who can be the next partners, and I found this to be very difficult. If the Southwest partnership with WestJet is any indication, Southwest is looking for a carrier that isn’t in one of the major three alliances (a move like this would probably anger the US airlines in these alliances) and follows a similar business model, which made my speculation even harder. Sometimes I broke my own rules. One part of the WestJet deal did make things easier, though - the airlines don’t necessarily have to have a lot of common cities presently.

So here’s my thoughts…

Hawaii

Southwest used to do Hawaii with ATA but they collapsed. Aloha Airlines also stopped passenger services, so this leaves Hawaiian and the legacies that fly between the mainland and Hawaii. If Southwest were to pick anyone, I think it would be Hawaiian.

Mexico/Caribbean

This was a tough one. For Mexico, the best guess I can make is Volaris, which is one of Mexico’s bigger LCCs. The airline doesn’t serve the United States yet, but it is still a very young company and has some A319s on order.

What about the Caribbean? Well, I doubt that Southwest would want to codeshare with American for their Caribbean network. Spirit also has a very nicely-sized Caribbean operation out of Fort Lauderdale, but I’m not positive if Southwest would want to partner with an airline that’s lost all the frills. For example, would Southwest transfer passengers have to pay all of Spirit’s fees? Anyways, I like Air Jamaica for a possible partnership.

Europe

Europe was also difficult…and I can’t really make a prediction. Some have said Michael O’Leary’s future international airline could be a partner, but Southwest may not like the fact that it will operate under an ultra low cost carrier (ULCC) model.

What about bringing back the Icelandair partnership? I don’t think that’s going to happen, as that adds an extra stop to European itineraries.

What about Zoom? It’s a small but interesting company that runs two airlines - one in Canada and one in the UK. Both run low-cost transatlantic services, and I think it’s the closest thing to a Southwest-like product across the Atlantic. There’s only one problem - most of its flights are from Canada. So far Southwest isn’t planning to run any of its own Canadian flights, so a traveler wishing to get to Europe would have to fly three airlines (Southwest, WestJet, and Zoom) to get there. The airline only serves New York, San Diego, and Ft. Lauderdale. It is a relatively small airline, but I’m sure it could pick up some 757s and 767s through leases, right?

South America

At first I thought Gol could be an option since it is a large LCC in this area (the airline is based in Brazil). I do have on concern, though, and that’s range. Someone with more technical knowledge will know better than me, but I think flights from Brazil to the US on a 737 might be stretching the range of that aircraft a bit. In other random speculation, neither TAM nor TACA are affiliated with any of the alliances, and they both have decently-sized networks.

Asia/Australia

Surprisingly this was the easiest one for me, and I’m picking Qantas’ LCC subsidiary JetStar. The airline is set to take delivery of 787-8s and supposedly is interested in flights to the United States. The airline generally avoids competing with Qantas directly. I definitely think a flight or two to Oakland could be possible. A partnership with this airline would be very beneficial to Southwest as it offers connections to Australia and to Asian countries as well.

Feel free to share your speculation in the comments!